Tropical Storm Rachel may bring the open Pacific to San Diego
As of Saturday, October 10, 2026, 8 AM. Times are Pacific Daylight Time; the figures are NHC Advisory 54. Rachel's forecast is changing quickly. Check the National Hurricane Center and NWS San Diego for the latest updates. The storm's position, strength, and the Tropical Storm Warning and Watch below are as the National Hurricane Center's advisories list them; the landfall odds and strengthening scenarios are forecasts and model projections; the birding is informed speculation. Update: Saturday, October 10, 8 AM
Rachel intensified overnight, with sustained winds now reaching 60 mph. The storm is moving northeast at 22 mph, approximately 520 miles south-southwest of San Diego (NHC Advisory 54). A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect along the Mexican coast to the U.S. border, while San Diego remains under a Tropical Storm Watch. Landfall is expected tonight.
Most forecast guidance continues to favor landfall in northern Baja California, although a track farther north remains plausible. Three factors contribute to this uncertainty: Greater-than-forecast intensity. Rachel has strengthened beyond earlier projections, potentially altering its response to the approaching upper-level trough. Stronger tropical cyclones extend farther into the atmosphere and can be more strongly influenced by winds aloft. This helps explain why some higher-intensity model solutions also produce a more northerly track. Divergence among high-resolution hurricane models. HAFS-A and HAFS-B forecast landfall near Ensenada around 11 PM tonight, followed by a northward track past Tecate and through eastern San Diego County. HWRF presents a substantially different scenario, keeping the center offshore approximately 20 miles west of downtown San Diego before bringing it ashore near Camp Pendleton. These regional hurricane models represent Baja California's complex topography at higher resolution than global models, which tend to smooth the terrain. Potential topographic influences on storm motion. Numerical modeling studies have demonstrated that tropical cyclones approaching mountain ranges can experience a leftward track deflection before landfall. Given Rachel's northeastward motion, such a deflection would favor a more northwesterly trajectory along the coast. However, the storm's relatively rapid forward speed should limit the magnitude of any terrain-induced deviation. Hurricane Hilary in 2023 illustrates the complexity of tropical cyclone tracks in this region, with its center briefly crossing into California, moving back offshore near San Diego, and subsequently making landfall again.
Implications for San Diego. The precise track will significantly influence the distribution of wind, rainfall, and coastal flooding. In Northern Hemisphere tropical cyclones, the strongest winds generally occur to the right of the direction of motion, where the storm's rotational winds are enhanced by its forward movement.
An Ensenada landfall would likely place much of coastal San Diego on the comparatively weaker western side of the circulation, with heavy rainfall remaining a primary concern. Conversely, an HWRF-like track west of San Diego would place the city on the stronger eastern side, increasing the potential for damaging onshore winds and wind-driven water accumulation in Mission Bay and San Diego Bay, particularly if the strongest winds coincide with high tide.
The 06z October 10 high-resolution hurricane models: HWRF (teal) stays offshore past San Diego; HAFS-A and HAFS-B (purple) come ashore in northern Baja and track north through eastern San Diego County. Screenshot: Polar WX. Storm at a Glance
Rachel is a 60 mph tropical storm, about 520 miles south-southwest of San Diego, moving northeast at 22 mph and still speeding up. Some strengthening is possible through tonight; the center is forecast to move onshore over northern Baja California tonight, and Rachel is likely to be post-tropical by Sunday morning.
Mexico has a Tropical Storm Warning for the west coast of the Baja California peninsula, from Punta Eugenia north to the U.S. border. San Diego is still under a Tropical Storm Watch, which covers the coast from the border to the San Diego–Orange County line.
Rachel's path since reaching Category 3 strength on October 1, with the forecast cone extending north toward the border. Image: Windy.
Peak strength: Category 3 hurricane, 120 mph, October 1, far offshore Saturday, 8 AM: 60 mph, 992 mb, moving northeast at 22 mph and accelerating (NHC Advisory 54) Tropical-storm-force winds: Reach 150 miles from the center (80 miles on Friday) Forecast: Northeast to north-northeast, still speeding up; some strengthening possible through tonight, then rapid weakening once inland Landfall window: Onshore tonight; post-tropical by Sunday morning Most likely landfall: Between Tijuana and Ensenada San Diego landfall odds: 20–30%, according to Daniel Swain Strong wind potential: 40–50% of European ensemble members forecast gusts of 50+ mph in San Diego Why Rachel Is Unusual
Tropical cyclones rarely survive the journey into Southern California waters. Rachel, however, may strengthen as it approaches the coast, thanks to an unusual combination of three factors. Record-Warm Ocean Temperatures
Sea surface temperatures along Rachel's track are running 10–13°F above normal, the warmest ever recorded in the region, according to Daniel Swain's October 9 analysis.
The exceptional warmth reflects a combination of record El Niño conditions, a marine heatwave that began before it, and long-term ocean warming. A Well-Timed Upper-Level Trough
An early-season trough off California is expected to draw Rachel northward and accelerate its approach. The interaction may also improve the storm's upper-level outflow, allowing it to regain strength rather than weaken as it moves toward Southern California.
Swain noted that he could not recall the National Hurricane Center previously forecasting this kind of strengthening near the Southern California coast. Storm Strength May Influence Landfall
Stronger members of the forecast ensembles generally track farther north. If Rachel strengthens more than expected, the chances of a direct San Diego landfall may increase.
Forecast model tracks approaching the coast between Tijuana and northern Baja California. Most favor landfall south of the border, although some extend into San Diego. Image: PolarWx.
This is only the second Tropical Storm Watch issued for California by the National Hurricane Center, following Hurricane Hilary in 2023. A direct landfall along the Southern California coast would be the first since the 1939 Long Beach storm. Risks for San Diego
Coastal flooding is among the most likely impacts, while inland flash flooding presents some of the greatest danger. The strongest conditions are expected overnight Saturday into Sunday.
Rachel's wind field approaching northern Baja California within the forecast cone. Image: Windy.
By morning southwest winds will be streaming onshore across San Diego County. Screenshot: Windy.
Hazard · Most likely · If Rachel tracks farther north Coastal flooding · Moderate; sea levels already approximately 18 inches above normal, with flooding reported at Balboa Peninsula on Friday · Major flooding possible, with 1–2 feet of surge; Coronado, San Diego Bay, and Mission Bay particularly exposed Coastal wind · Gusts of 30–50 mph · Gusts of 50–70+ mph possible, with a 10–20% chance of the higher-end scenario; fallen trees and power outages Mountain wind · Tropical-storm-force winds likely · Potentially damaging winds Coastal rain · Steady rain, moderate to heavy at times · Increased street and urban flooding Flash flooding · Eastern mountain slopes and deserts, where a Flood Watch is in effect · Similar risks, with additional impacts in northern Baja California and Tijuana Travel · Sunday morning flight delays likely · Cancellations possible through Sunday morning
San Diego's trees are fully leafed and largely unaccustomed to strong southerly winds. Branch failures may be more widespread than during a winter storm with comparable wind speeds. Hurricane Birding: Risks and Cautions No bird is worth driving through a flooded wash. Watch from safe, elevated, sheltered locations, and allow conditions to improve before venturing out. Flooding. Bay and beach parking lots, Coronado's Silver Strand, and shoreline roads around Mission Bay may flood at high tide. Never drive through standing or moving water. Falling branches and power lines. Strong gusts can bring down limbs, particularly from large eucalyptus and palms. Avoid parking beneath trees and treat every downed power line as live. Driving. The first significant rain in months can make roads oily and slippery. Reduce speed, increase following distance, and use low beams in poor visibility. Surf and spray. Large waves may overtop seawalls and reach cliff edges at La Jolla and Point Loma. Stay well back from exposed areas. Darkness. The most interesting birding conditions may occur around first light Sunday, shortly after the worst overnight weather. Check potential access routes in advance, but only visit once conditions are safe. Deserts. Flash flooding is a serious concern in the Imperial Valley, Anza-Borrego, and surrounding desert areas. Washes can fill within minutes, even beneath clear skies, from rain falling many miles upstream. Birds in Rachel's Waters in October
Rachel is moving across open subtropical waters west of Baja California before approaching the waters around Guadalupe Island and the northern Baja continental shelf.
In October, these waters hold a mixture of tropical seabirds, southbound migrants, and species breeding on the offshore islands of Mexico.
Group · Species · Why they're present in October Gadfly petrels · Cook's, Juan Fernández, Tahiti. Rarer possibilities: Kermadec, Hawaiian · Southbound migration and post-breeding dispersal across the subtropical Pacific Shearwaters · Pink-footed, Sooty, Wedge-tailed, Black-vented. Rarer possibilities: Christmas, Townsend's · Southbound migrants and Mexican island breeders Storm-petrels · Leach's, including Guadalupe and Socorro forms; Least, Wedge-rumped, Ainley's, Black · Mexican island populations and post-breeding movements Tropicbirds, boobies, and frigatebirds · Red-billed Tropicbird; Brown, Masked, and Nazca Boobies; Magnificent Frigatebird · Subtropical species that may range northward with warm water Terns, gulls, and jaegers · Sabine's Gull, Arctic and Common Terns, Pomarine and Long-tailed Jaegers, Red Phalarope · Autumn migration through offshore waters
This year's unusually warm water may already have encouraged some tropical species farther north than usual, potentially increasing the variety of birds Rachel could encounter.
These species are included based on their known ranges and seasonal movements, not live surveys of birds within the storm.
Pink-footed Shearwater. One of the most likely species to appear in the storm's outer bands, with a pale bill and mottled underwing.
Sooty Shearwater. Another likely storm-band bird, recognizable by its dark plumage and silvery underwing flash.
Magnificent Frigatebird. A strong candidate for an unusual sighting over coastal bays or inland waters.
Brown Booby. A subtropical species already known to wander north into Southern California waters.
Photographs: Thomas Ford-Hutchinson. Target Species
Two groups are worth watching: strong-flying seabirds moving with the storm's outer bands, and birds that become caught in its circulation and may be deposited inland as the storm weakens. Storm-Band Riders
Best sought from coastal seawatching locations, once conditions are safe.
Species · Likelihood Pink-footed Shearwater · Likely Sooty Shearwater · Likely Wedge-tailed Shearwater · Possible Juan Fernández Petrel · Possible Tahiti Petrel (unrecorded in California) · Possible Townsend's Shearwater · Very remote Christmas Shearwater · Very remote
Photograph credits: Pink-footed and Sooty Shearwaters, Thomas Ford-Hutchinson; Wedge-tailed Shearwater, Duncan Wright (public domain); Juan Fernández Petrel, Christoph Moning (CC BY 4.0); Townsend's Shearwater, Don Faulkner (CC BY-SA 2.0); Christmas Shearwater, Duncan Wright/USFWS (public domain); Tahiti Petrel, Aviceda (CC BY 3.0). Additional images via Wikimedia Commons. Birds Carried Inland
These species could become entrained within the storm and appear on inland waters as its circulation breaks down.
Species · Likelihood Magnificent Frigatebird · Likely Least Storm-Petrel · Likely Leach's Storm-Petrel · Possible Wedge-rumped Storm-Petrel · Possible Ainley's Storm-Petrel · Remote Terns, gulls, and jaegers · Likely, potentially in mixed flocks
Photograph credits: Frigatebird and tern, Thomas Ford-Hutchinson; Leach's Storm-Petrel, C. Schlawe (public domain); Wedge-rumped Storm-Petrel, Brian Gratwicke (CC BY 2.0); Least Storm-Petrel, Nancy Overholtz (CC BY-SA 4.0). Additional images via Wikimedia Commons.
Hurricane Hilary in August 2023 provides a useful comparison. Least and Black Storm-Petrels, along with frigatebirds, were among the seabirds reported inland after the storm moved through Southern California. Where and When to Look
If Rachel passes overnight as forecast, the first safe daylight hours on Sunday could be particularly productive. Disoriented seabirds may gather near city lights or settle on sheltered waters, with some departing soon after dawn.
Location · Why it matters · Potential targets · Track scenario San Diego Bay, downtown waterfront · City lights may attract disoriented seabirds overnight · Storm-petrels, frigatebirds, terns · Any Mission Bay · Sheltered water and illuminated shoreline where birds may settle · Storm-petrels, terns, jaegers · Any Lower Otay Lake · Rachel's circulation may weaken overhead, potentially depositing birds inland · Storm-petrels, frigatebirds, terns · Current track La Jolla Cove · Onshore winds may push birds from the outer bands closer to shore · Shearwaters, gadfly petrels · Any; best with strong onshore winds Imperial Beach · Near the potential landfall area on a farther-north track · Storm-band riders and entrained birds · Northern track Cabrillo, Point Loma · Elevated seawatching vantage point, although offshore waters are relatively shallow · Shearwaters, petrels · Northern track Possible Plans for Sunday Morning
The best approach will depend on Rachel's final track, local conditions, and any early reports of unusual birds.
If access is safe, three options are worth considering. Each begins at first light, approximately 6:25 AM, with the possibility of moving to another site later in the morning.
Option · Dawn to approximately 8 AM · Approximately 8–11 AM · If landfall shifts north Seawatch · La Jolla Cove for birds moving along the outer bands · Continue seawatching while conditions remain productive · Cabrillo, Point Loma San Diego Bay · Downtown waterfront and Harbor Island, near overnight lighting · Lower Otay Lake · Imperial Beach Mission Bay · Sheltered shoreline and points around Mission Bay · Move to La Jolla Point · Stay at Mission Bay
Rachel's track should become clearer by Saturday evening. Check the National Hurricane Center's latest advisory, local road conditions, and access restrictions before choosing a location. How the Storm Carries Seabirds Inland
Some seabirds may be carried along the storm's outer bands, while others could become trapped within its circulation and move inland as Rachel crosses the coast. Where each group rides the storm
Group · Expected position · Why · Where to look Gadfly petrels · Outer rainbands and the strong-wind east side · Dynamic soarers that use high wind; they work the storm's edge rather than its core · Seawatches as bands sweep the coast Shearwaters · Outer bands, and toward the eye when the storm sits between them and land · Strong fliers that usually skirt storms; tracked shearwaters have flown into a typhoon's eye for up to 8 hours to avoid being blown ashore · Seawatches; a few dropped inland after the eye passes Storm-petrels · Trapped in the eye · Too light to cross the eyewall; carried along until the storm decays · Bays, harbors, and inland lakes at dawn Frigatebirds, terns, gulls · Eye and calmer core · Ride the eye's light winds; released as the storm breaks apart · Bays and inland lakes, soaring overhead
Sources: Scientific American on tracked shearwaters in typhoons (PNAS study) · BBC Future, Riders of the storm: the birds that fly into hurricanes
Follow the possible journey of seabirds from the open Pacific to San Diego's coastline and inland waters. The illustration is schematic and not to scale. A note for birdwatchers. Photograph anything unusual, particularly suspected Ainley's or Leach's Storm-Petrels. Images showing the rump, tail shape, and underwing can be especially valuable for confirming identifications later. Identifying Petrels, Shearwaters, and Storm-Petrels
In overcast light and stormy spray, judge shape and proportions first: wing length and width, tail shape, bill size, followed by color and pattern. Flight style is unreliable in a strong wind, when every bird is thrown about. Gadfly petrels
Species · Key marks · Main confusion Juan Fernández Petrel · Large, gray-brown above with scaly pattern and dark open "M"; diffuse dark cap and eye patch on a white face; white underwing with dark trailing edge and a small dark carpal spot; long tail projection, often with some white over the tail; high, bounding arcs · White-necked Petrel, which has a dark carpal bar (not a spot) on the underwing, shorter tail projection, sharply defined blackish cap and white hind collar. Some worn young Juan Fernández show a faint pale collar, so check the underwing and cap. Also Cook's and Hawaiian Hawaiian Petrel · Dark gray-black above with dark cap reaching below the eye; white forehead; white below with dark underwing margins · Galápagos Petrel; check the axillaries (black "armpits") Cook's Petrel · Small, pale gray above with bold dark "M"; clean white below; very fast, twisting flight · Black-winged Petrel; look for a black ulnar bar on the underwing (Black-winged) Tahiti Petrel (unrecorded in California) · Dark chocolate hood, upperparts and underwing (underwing can look silvery with a dark border in some light); white belly and undertail sharply cut off at the chest; long, narrow wings held straight out, giving an albatross-like look; long tail projection; often paler feather tips across the rump; sits high on the water with long neck and robust black bill · dark-rumped shearwaters (thinner bill, mostly white underwing) Shearwaters
Species · Key marks · Main confusion Pink-footed Shearwater · Large, brown above; dirty white below with variable dusky underwing; pink bill with dark tip; slow, lazy flaps · dark morph Wedge-tailed; Buller's (gray with bold black "M") Sooty Shearwater · All dark with silvery underwing flash; narrow wings held stiff; fast, choppy flaps · Short-tailed Shearwater (rare here in fall); Christmas Shearwater Wedge-tailed Shearwater · Long wedge-shaped tail, wings angled forward at wrist; pale or dark morph; buoyant, unhurried flight · Pink-footed (shorter tail, pink bill); dark morph vs Sooty (no silvery underwing) Christmas Shearwater (rare, unlikely) · Small, all chocolate-brown including underwing (limited to no silvery flash); dark bill and feet · Sooty (more silver-white underwing, much larger); dark storm-petrels at a distance Townsend's Shearwater (rare, unlikely) · Small, crisp black above, white below; white flank patch wrapping onto rump; black vent · Black-vented (browner, dusky vent and less contrast); Newell's (very similar) Storm-petrels
Species · Key marks · Main confusion Least Storm-Petrel · Tiny, all dark with a tapered, wedge-shaped tail; only a weak pale upperwing bar; can look big-winged with a small head; moth-like flutter, dropping to patter with wings raised over the body · Black (much larger, longer wings) Wedge-rumped Storm-Petrel · Small; long, wedge-shaped white rump reaching almost to the tail tip and wrapping onto the sides of the undertail; shallow notched tail; short, stout bill; muted upperwing bars that stop short of the leading edge; at distance looks black with a glaring white rump · Leach's (narrower, divided rump; bounding flight) Leach's Storm-Petrel · Long, angular wings with pronounced pale upperwing bars (sometimes the most obvious feature); forked tail; feet do not project past the tail; rump typically two white ovals split by a dark center, some all white, Baja birds (chapmani) mostly dark-rumped or with whitish side ovals; buoyant, tern-like flight · Ainley's and Townsend's (rump extent varies by population; separate with care) Townsend's Storm-Petrel · Guadalupe summer and Socorro breeder. Rump ranges from bold all-white to fully dark, but most are white-rumped, with white spreading onto the flanks and sides of the undertail; all-dark birds are rare; moderately forked tail; dull brownish upperwing bar · Ainley's (messier, grayer rump, less white on flanks); Leach's (longer, more angular wings) Ainley's Storm-Petrel (potentially inseparable from Leach's) · Guadalupe winter breeder split from Leach's. Rump patch usually "messy," white washed with gray and brown, reduced to white "thumbprints" on either side; all-white and all-dark birds unknown. Limited white on flanks and undertail; broad, bluntly pointed wings; upperwing bar reaches to or near the bend of the wing; moderately forked tail · Leach's; often not separable in the field without photos or sound Black Storm-Petrel · Largest local storm-petrel; all dark with pale upperwing bar; long wings; slow, deep, tern-like wingbeats · Least (tiny, fluttery); dark-rumped Leach's types (bounding flight)
Portraits: Pink-footed and Sooty Shearwaters, Thomas Ford-Hutchinson; Wedge-tailed and Christmas Shearwaters, Duncan Wright (public domain); Juan Fernández Petrel, Christoph Moning (CC BY 4.0); Townsend's Shearwater, Don Faulkner (CC BY-SA 2.0); Leach's Storm-Petrel, C. Schlawe (public domain); Wedge-rumped Storm-Petrel, Brian Gratwicke (CC BY 2.0); Townsend's Storm-Petrel, Adam Jackson (CC0); Black Storm-Petrel, David F. Belmonte (CC BY 4.0); Hawaiian Petrel, russnamitz (CC0); Cook's Petrel, JJ Harrison (CC BY-SA 3.0); Tahiti Petrel, Aviceda (CC BY 3.0); Least Storm-Petrel, Nancy Overholtz (CC BY-SA 4.0). Via Wikimedia Commons.
Photograph any unusual seabirds you encounter, particularly suspected Ainley's or Leach's Storm-Petrels. Try to capture the rump, tail shape, underwing pattern, and overall proportions from several angles. These details can be essential for confirming an identification later, especially when strong winds make flight behavior difficult to interpret.
Sources: NHC Advisory 54 · NHC Intermediate Advisory 52A · NHC Advisory 52 · Daniel Swain, Weather West live stream, Oct 9